Bitcoin Winter Still Frigid
Much of America might be in the midst of a deep freeze, but the global crypto market seems to be situated in a so-called “nuclear winter.” Over the past year (or so), the value of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen from an all-time high of $20,000 to a low of $3,150. And while it has been a number of weeks since the flagship cryptocurrency reached that level, but market conditions still look harrowing, in spite of an array of good news: VanEck refiles BTC exchange-traded fund, Binance launches debit & credit purchasing feature, Fidelity to launch crypto custody by March, and more.
According to a recent post from MarketWatch’s Aaron Hankin, the finance news outlet’s in-house crypto-friendly reporter, Bitcoin is about to surpass a milestone. And it isn’t a good one. Hankin explained that “barring a minor miracle,” the foremost digital asset by market capitalization will post its sixth consecutive month of losses.
This will be the first time that Bitcoin has accomplished such a feat since, well, ever — according to Dow Jones Market Data anyway, which dates back to July 2010. Since the commencement of August, BTC, which then traded at over $7,000, has fallen drastically, plunging from mid-November to mid-December to collapse by dozens of percentages from its early-August levels. This could mark a new paradigm for Bitcoin… or it might not.
In fact, some are adamant that a bull run is inbound, even right around the corner. Per previous reports from Ethereum World News, Moon Overlord, Mustache, and a number of other industry commentators are sure that BTC will begin to run in a short period of time, especially as the block reward halving grows ever nearer.
Using historical analysis, along with the theories that the crypto market rhymes, not repeats, Overlord explained that the fact that BTC barely moved off VanEck, CBOE, and SolidX’s ETF withdrawal indicates that a bottom is festering. The trader went on to cite historical analysis to express that “Bitcoin has traditionally started pumping around one year on average before it’s halving date.” And as the next issuance reduction is scheduled to occur by May 2020, Bitcoin could begin trending to the upside as spring rolls around.
Crypto Bear Market May Continue
Yet, some aren’t convinced that the bears are slated to hibernate. In fact, some short-term cynics expect for short-side action to continue for months. Speaking to MarketWatch via email, Jani Ziedins, a market analyst at CrackedMarkets, noted that while there was bonafide hype regarding the Dotcom “revolution,” Bitcoin doesn’t have the same value proposition.
Ziedins explained that the “magical thing” about BTC is its 21 million supply cap, adding that this feature could “prevent manipulation and inflation.” He remarked that this part of Bitcoin’s code base, implemented by Satoshi Nakamoto, would have ensured that BTC would swell in value as time passed and its popularity increased. However, he noted that with the rise of “countless copycats,” likely referencing the mass of projects that attempted to replicate Bitcoin’s ecosystem, the broader crypto market was drastically diluted.
Travis Kling, the head of Los Angeles-based crypto hedge fund Ikigai, recently claimed that before a cryptocurrency rally, a number of horrors will befall this industry. On Twitter, he wrote:
More exchanges gone. More projects shuttering. More SEC enforcements. More developer ragequits. More ICO Treasury selling. More layoffs. More fund liquidations. More scammers exposed. More failed cap raises. More “crypto is dead”… Only then do we move higher ?
His comment comes after Liqui, a Ukranian crypto exchange, revealed that it, ironically enough, couldn’t provide liquidity due to financial constraints, and would thus be shuttering its platforms. Kling’s inflammatory quip also comes after a number of key crypto upstarts, including SpankChain, Steemit, ShapeShift, Blockfolio, Huobi, Bitmain, and dozens of others, laid off employees to extend their financial runways.
Murad Mahmudov, a Princeton graduate turned crypto researcher, is also of the thought process that the bears aren’t done ravaging their prey just yet. In a recent Twitter thread, Mahmudov broke down why the “famous 200-week moving average (MA) support” for Bitcoin will break in coming months. He explained that BTC could wick to as low as the MA350~400 range, specifically in the $1,700 range.
Even if cryptocurrencies start to run, analysts have made it abundantly clear that a bull rally won’t come easy. As reported by this outlet yesterday, Mahmudov made it apparent that if BTC runs, the digital asset will have trouble breaking $4,300, due to the presence of important technical levels in that area.
Title Image Courtesy of W A T A R I via Unsplash